If an expert appears on Fox Business News and there’s no clip, does he make a sound?

Just for the record, and so you can hold me accountable for what I predict, I appeared for about five minutes on Foxbusinessnews with Maria Bartiromo on Thursday (3/28/19).  We talked about the trade negotiations in China.  I said the spin (‘much progress made’) was pointing towards a settlement, but a deal not a solution.  The Chinese will have a hard time accepting a lopsided deal, so there’s still negotiating to do, but the Americans are ready to claim victory for deficit reducing measures.  That doesn’t solve the problems that both we and the Europeans are grappling with: safeguarding intellectual property and competing with State enterprises.   Only a united effort, led by the US, could really solve the issues with China.

Fox didn’t put up a clip –too much political and GDP news– but it was fun and interesting to me and I hope useful to the audience.



New Article on Belt and Road: A Reality Check

Article today in thediplomat.com on China’s Belt and Road. With another big Belt and Road Forum coming up in April, it’s time to insulate ourselves from the hoopla and the overreaction that will ensue. China is a player now in global infrastructure finance, but private finance is the bigger and more important new phenomenon.  China’s financing goes to Chinese firms and Chinese workers for Chinese ends:  invest excess money, secure resources and supplies, gain access to markets, and re-brand every venture overseas to please the leader.   Corridors through Pakistan and Myanmar, without going through the Straits of Malacca, and reestablishing China in Central Asia are indeed important strategies for China, but don’t really change it’s vulnerability to world shipping and shocks.