Talked to Mark Magnier of the South China Morning Post about the new US “advisory” on Hong Kong, reflecting the reality of Chinese heavy control, but also that US companies need to be there. Also comments at the end about meeting with Chinese leaders in an international setting and then the big picture: the Chinese need to deal with a world increasingly united against them and the US needs to deal with the reality of China’s rise into world affairs.
I did an interview with Voice of America (Nilofar Mughal) Urdu service. Urdu version is here.
The gist (to the extent I remember what I said): Taliban and government are pushing to occupy the space as the US withdraws, but will have to reach agreement among Afghans. Pakistan’s needs to take responsibility and push for a settlement.
Spoke to a group of high school students sponsored by the Houston World Affairs Council about the political economy of Asia.
Summary: China can invest in high tech, but economic creativity and vitality is dulled by the dead hand of the communist party. US needs to upgrade its workforce for modern manufacturing. South Asia and Southeast Asia need more and smoother integration.
All of us need to face up to our internal problems rather than blaming problems on outsiders.
Ended with a quote from George Kennan in his X article: US standing in the world depends on our ability to demonstrate a “spiritual vitality” among nations –economic dynamism included.
Here are the slides I used, plus my speaking notes.
Ming Pao in Hong Kong on March 31 and April 2 published articles on the Biden Administration’s China strategy and the Quad. Two sections quote me. The gist: The Administration is working with others who share concerns about China’s increasingly pushy posture in economic relations, in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong or in international organizations. Rather than letting China isolate each country, we can take a common stance on the “rules of the road.”
The reporter also asked about whether India’s purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia will disrupt our cooperation. While Congress passed a law in 2017 authorizing sanctions for such purchases, the Adminsitration will likely just disregard the purchases and pursue strategic interests with India. Nonetheless, the purchase is a reminder that India’s interests are generally aligned with those of the US but India will always go its own way.
What I sent them in English:
— The Quad and other meetings with Europe and friends in Southeast Asia, represent a chance to work with others who share concerns about China’s increasingly pushy posture in economic relations, in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong or in international organizations. Rather than letting China isolate each country, we can take a common stance on the “rules of the road” be they trading rules, human rights or behavior in diplomatic relationships. China will feel increased pressure because its practices under the current administration are out of step with what the rest of the world sees as fair, and that “rest of the world” talks to each other about China.
— India has long purchased Russian weapons so it shouldn’t be surprising that they want to buy these missiles –a sale first announced in 2018. Unfortunately, Congress had passed a law in 2017 called the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa), that requires the President to invoke sanctions against countries that buy Russian weapons. At the time, under President Trump, the White House and State Department cited the law as potentially unconstitutional in restricting the President’s authority in foreign affairs. Thus, it remains to be seen whether the new Administration will invoke sanctions, use the threat to pressure India, or ignore the sale and see if Congress responds.
And the Chinese pages from Ming Pao on 31 March and 2 April 2021:
Solid article by Mark Magnier for South China morning post quotes me, Jeff Moon and others. My prognosis: both sides need to lay down markers (US on Human Rights, cyber-spying, trade, technology, South China sea) (China on Taiwan, South China Sea, economic independence). However, both need to show that they are not isolated, so will look for areas of cooperation, probably: climate change, lowering trade tensions, opening investment flows, North Korea.
Talked about Biden foreign policy yesterday with Seoul TBS-eFM’s Morning Show. Interviewer is Henry Shinn. Segment marked as “TakeAways from Recent Quad Meeting” at https://lnkd.in/dyKbWJ2 Key theme: Biden pursuing multilateral diplomacy because that’s the only way to solve global problems, including rise of #china.
My article in the Frontier Post today about what to expect from our President elect. Pure speculation, no inside sources. Check back in six months to see if I got it right.
In any case, the conclusion for the moment:
Biden will emphasize diplomacy and development, seeking to return the US to leadership through negotiation, communication and active organizing efforts on world issues. Pakistan has a chance to be a partner with the new Administration if it wants to focus on peace in Afghanistan and economic development in Pakistan.
Link to the full article: https://thefrontierpost.com/what-does-president-biden-mean-for-pakistan-and-afghanistan/
or at the page here.
National Journal reporter did an exhaustive analysis of Secretary of State Pompeo’s. He used one quote for me, but the highlights are the numbers showing a decidedly domestic focus, centered on the Fox news network. Is this Pompeo supporting his boss or Pompeo trying to build his own reputation among conservatives?
I did a (written) interview with a Ming Pao (Hong Kong) reporter about the Foreign Policy implications of our election. It was published on October 13 in Chinese.
“American first” has ended up producing “America Alone”
As we head into a new era, these Alliances can help create a system of global cooperation on global issues, help us benefit from each others’ strengths, help us open our markets to each other on an equal basis, and organize solutions to technological, political, military and diplomatic challenges we all face. Alliances underpin US leadership to make the rules that we all must follow –including emerging powers like China.
,,,”as long as the authorities in Beijing continue to interfere in the politics, the security environment, the education system, the judicial system and the daily life of Hong Kong, the US will maintain sanctions and restrictions –no matter which party controls the White House or the Congress.”
Our letter was published today and written up at: