Wrote an article at thecipherbrief.com (http://bit.ly/2iPa95o). Gist is that we need to focus on building out the Afghan (and Pakistani) government. Helping people, killing Taliban, educating girls or building roads may be good things to do, but if we do these things ourselves, it just perpetuates a stalemate. Our exit strategy, from the beginning, has rested on building an Afghan government that can control its territory and prevent foreign fighters from installing themselves.
Thus, we need to spend our money directly through the Afghan government so that they deliver services and security to the population. We should build their fighting capability. If we want to do something right, DON’T do it ourselves.
As frustrating as it is to deal with Pakistan, they have the same problem: control of territory and border. We can work with them to monitor the border and to expand government control into the tribal areas, where they have recently imposed military order.
Only by supporting local capability will we be able to leave. We need to keep our focus on the exit.
Advocates for the new Administration say they don’t take “America First” to mean the isolationist credo of 1940 that argued against US involvement in World War II (before Japan attacked Pearl harbor). They say it means putting American interests first in our dealings with foreign countries.
Leaving aside the fact that I and other US diplomats spent our lives advancing American interests around the world for the past decades, that we pushed agreements that expand US values and US benefits, what does the new Administration think it means?
So, I looked back at the first of these firsters: Teddy Roosevelt. He was a forceful advocate for America’s involvement in world affairs; indeed, under Roosevelt we became a contender. He sailed a fleet of 16 battleships around the world, blocked the Europeans from collecting debt in South America, imposed US rules of conduct and order on the hemisphere, built a canal in Panama where the French failed, and called Russia and Japan to New Hampshire to make peace. In sum, Roosevelt forcefully put the United States at the center of world affairs. He did it to advance US interests and US power. In the first years of the twentieth century, the US became a world power on the basis of our values. We began to make the rules.
What lessons can we learn? Well, that we need to use all instruments of power –diplomatic, economic, military–in concert to advance our values and interests together. Teddy wasn’t just show, not just shiny ships and bluster. He marshaled power to achieve goals of justice (as he saw it) and to make America a new kind of world power: one built on principle.
Could we approach the world now as Teddy did then? With China bulging out, India coming into its own, Europe and Japan finding their feet and Russia lashing out, we need a strategy that fits the times. Perhaps not exactly Teddy, but values need to form the core of our power, our tools need to work in concert and we need to make –and follow- just principles and rules. As we approach a confusing global landscape, shouldn’t we ask ourselves: What would Teddy do today?
See the article at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/expert-view/donald-trump-can-learn-teddy-roosevelts-america-first
Wrote an article for TheCipherBrief (see https://goo.gl/XlucTE) on Trump and the Europeans. They tried to “educate” him yet he persisted in his views. Whatever the discord, we’re stuck with each other on issue after issue: “Together, we face digitization, automation, terrorism, Middle East turmoil, Russian belligerence, and Chinese resurgence. From ISIS to cod to laptop bans to data privacy, neither the U.S. nor Europe can make policy alone….“Go it alone” won’t work for either Americans or Europeans and the sooner we accept our fate and mollify our pretensions to independence, the better off we’ll be. ”
Detached analysis aside, Trump’s visit reminds me of two memes from South Park. When the new President was shown the Pentagon last season, he marveled at the toys: nukes, satellites, drones. When he opened the door marked “Diplomatic negotiations” he blurted out: “Oh jeez, this doesn’t look like fun.” That kind of sums of Donald’s trip to Europe. Whereupon, he departs muttering Eric Cartman’s refrain and pulls out of the Paris Accords on his return.
President Trump’s first foray into the world of foreign affairs hinged on one issue: can he convey a sense of trustworthy personal and U.S. leadership? Rhetorically, he did fine but at home he proposed a budget that guts his ability to follow through. In Riyadh and at NATO, he proclaimed American leadership. In Washington, his budget declared unilateral diplomatic disarmament.
Read the full piece in The Cipher Brief: here
Wrote another short piece for TheCipherBrief on Obama’s expulsion of Russian intelligence officers. Obama’s response did three things: contained the crisis in intelligence channels, gave the Russians a familiar path to limit the damage, and made a point about cyber norms.
Indeed, this is the third time he’s taken action or inaction to create norms for behavior in Cyberspace.
- First, by indicting Chinese hackers from Unit 61398 and then pressing Xi Jingping to accept that governments don’t hack for commercial advantage.
- Second, by expressing outrage but not retaliating when China broke into the poorly protected trove of data at the Office of Personnel Management, he established that espionage is OK.
- Third, by expelling military intelligence officers (behind the hackers called “FancyBear”) and civilian intelligence officers (behind the hackers known as “CozyBear”), he’s tried to establish another norm: governments don’t hack for political advantage.
With elections next year in Germany and France, we’ll see if Obama’s third norm can stick.
For cut and pasters, the full article is at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/exclusive/north-america/watching-cybernorms-get-made-1092
Wrote a short column for TheCipherBrief on staying ahead of China. Examined implications of China starting with basic elements of what China is and is becoming. We need to remember that China is:
3) Dependent on value chains
4) At the end of their model
5) Big on almost every issue
6) most Asian countries’ top trading partner.
Bottom line: understand Chinese behavior, they looking for a place in the system. If we keep moving ahead on technology, trade, economy, China has to fit in. If we lag behind, China will pass us.
For cutting and pasting, the post is at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/agenda-setter/back-basics-staying-ahead-china-1090
Just before the G20 summit in Hangzhou, Caijing Magazine asked me some questions about the upcoming meeting. The answers in Chinese are here.
For those who read Chinese slowly, like me, I’ve provided the English version here:
The gist: G20 can be useful if they prod each other in the right direction, but don’t expect them to run the world.